Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a high near 23–28°C in Paris on July 26 under partly cloudy skies following the early-July heatwave, with limited daytime heating due to variable cloud cover and a moderating northerly flow. This range aligns closely with the tightly bunched market odds favoring 23–25°C, as small differences in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Normal July climatology (around 25°C) and the absence of strong high pressure or southerly advection support the current trader consensus, with updates from 48-hour model runs likely to refine the exact peak ahead of market resolution.