**Forecast consensus across multiple meteorological models points to a daily maximum of 31–32°C in Shanghai on August 23, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes.** Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and a 50–60% chance of light rain or showers—driven by southeasterly flow—are limiting surface heating and suppressing stronger diurnal temperature rises. Official guidance from sources such as the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and global ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) shows highs stabilizing near 31.5°C under these conditions, consistent with late-August climatology where mean maxima reach approximately 31°C. Recent model runs have not introduced significant warming signals or clearer skies that would support 33°C or higher, keeping those probabilities below 5% combined. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 31–32°C band as the most probable resolution window ahead of final observational data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Xangai em 23 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Xangai em 23 de agosto?
31°C 54%
32°C 31%
30°C 12%
33°C 5%
NOVO
$10,607 Vol.
NOVO
$10,607 Vol.
23 ago 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
12%
31°C
54%
32°C
31%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 54%
32°C 31%
30°C 12%
33°C 5%
NOVO
$10,607 Vol.
NOVO
$10,607 Vol.
23 ago 2026
26°C or below
$274 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,707 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$694 Vol.
1%
29°C
$678 Vol.
3%
30°C
$1,475 Vol.
12%
31°C
$1,526 Vol.
54%
32°C
$1,676 Vol.
31%
33°C
$884 Vol.
5%
34°C
$917 Vol.
2%
35°C
$474 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$302 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus across multiple meteorological models points to a daily maximum of 31–32°C in Shanghai on August 23, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes.**
Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and a 50–60% chance of light rain or showers—driven by southeasterly flow—are limiting surface heating and suppressing stronger diurnal temperature rises. Official guidance from sources such as the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and global ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) shows highs stabilizing near 31.5°C under these conditions, consistent with late-August climatology where mean maxima reach approximately 31°C. Recent model runs have not introduced significant warming signals or clearer skies that would support 33°C or higher, keeping those probabilities below 5% combined. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 31–32°C band as the most probable resolution window ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,607Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus across multiple meteorological models points to a daily maximum of 31–32°C in Shanghai on August 23, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes.**
Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and a 50–60% chance of light rain or showers—driven by southeasterly flow—are limiting surface heating and suppressing stronger diurnal temperature rises. Official guidance from sources such as the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and global ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) shows highs stabilizing near 31.5°C under these conditions, consistent with late-August climatology where mean maxima reach approximately 31°C. Recent model runs have not introduced significant warming signals or clearer skies that would support 33°C or higher, keeping those probabilities below 5% combined. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 31–32°C band as the most probable resolution window ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,607Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus across multiple meteorological models points to a daily maximum of 31–32°C in Shanghai on August 23, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes.** Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and a 50–60% chance of light rain or showers—driven by southeasterly flow—are limiting surface heating and suppressing stronger diurnal temperature rises. Official guidance from sources such as the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau and global ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) shows highs stabilizing near 31.5°C under these conditions, consistent with late-August climatology where mean maxima reach approximately 31°C. Recent model runs have not introduced significant warming signals or clearer skies that would support 33°C or higher, keeping those probabilities below 5% combined. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 31–32°C band as the most probable resolution window ahead of final observational data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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