Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to typical mid-August subtropical conditions limiting overnight radiational cooling in Miami, with dew points near 75°F and light winds sustaining minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s on August 19. Persistent warmth from a broad high-pressure pattern and high humidity have kept recent overnight lows at or above 80°F, consistent with climatological averages of 78–80°F and rare excursions below 74°F. Trader consensus favoring the 78–81°F bins reflects this stable regime, though any increase in cloud cover or convective activity could modestly enhance cooling and shift probabilities toward the lower end of the distribution.