Negotiations for MLB’s next collective bargaining agreement opened only days ago with an initial owners-players session limited to broad overviews and no formal proposals exchanged. Major gaps remain on salary-cap frameworks, revenue sharing, and minimum-spending floors, issues that have historically produced extended standoffs and lockouts. With the current five-year deal set to expire at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1 and formal bargaining not expected to intensify until later in the year, the timeline leaves little room for compromise on these divisive topics. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome a 64.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the extended process typically required to bridge such structural differences before the deadline.