Steady mid-May travel patterns have positioned the 17.5-18 million range as the market frontrunner at 72.5% implied probability, driven by consistent daily TSA screening volumes near 2.5 million on weekdays and typical weekend dips. Recent checkpoint data through May 10 shows reliable throughput without disruptions from weather, strikes, or economic shocks, reflecting ongoing air travel recovery and a balanced business-leisure mix. Traders note higher jet fuel costs have modestly tempered demand but not enough to drop totals below expectations, while early summer schedules sustain momentum ahead of the Memorial Day surge. The final days of the period remain key swing factors, with any late corporate travel spikes or delays potentially pushing outcomes toward the upper end of the favored band.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado17.5-18m 95%
16.5-17m 48%
18-18.5m 48%
<16.5m 38.2%
$1,066 Vol.
$1,066 Vol.
17 mai 2026
<16.5m
38%
16.5-17m
48%
17-17.5m
48%
17.5-18m
73%
18-18.5m
48%
>18.5m
25%
17.5-18m 95%
16.5-17m 48%
18-18.5m 48%
<16.5m 38.2%
$1,066 Vol.
$1,066 Vol.
17 mai 2026
<16.5m
$427 Vol.
38%
16.5-17m
$30 Vol.
48%
17-17.5m
$105 Vol.
48%
17.5-18m
$6 Vol.
73%
18-18.5m
$3 Vol.
48%
>18.5m
$495 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive).
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Steady mid-May travel patterns have positioned the 17.5-18 million range as the market frontrunner at 72.5% implied probability, driven by consistent daily TSA screening volumes near 2.5 million on weekdays and typical weekend dips. Recent checkpoint data through May 10 shows reliable throughput without disruptions from weather, strikes, or economic shocks, reflecting ongoing air travel recovery and a balanced business-leisure mix. Traders note higher jet fuel costs have modestly tempered demand but not enough to drop totals below expectations, while early summer schedules sustain momentum ahead of the Memorial Day surge. The final days of the period remain key swing factors, with any late corporate travel spikes or delays potentially pushing outcomes toward the upper end of the favored band.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive).
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: May 9, 2026, 12:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,066Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 9, 2026, 12:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive).
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Steady mid-May travel patterns have positioned the 17.5-18 million range as the market frontrunner at 72.5% implied probability, driven by consistent daily TSA screening volumes near 2.5 million on weekdays and typical weekend dips. Recent checkpoint data through May 10 shows reliable throughput without disruptions from weather, strikes, or economic shocks, reflecting ongoing air travel recovery and a balanced business-leisure mix. Traders note higher jet fuel costs have modestly tempered demand but not enough to drop totals below expectations, while early summer schedules sustain momentum ahead of the Memorial Day surge. The final days of the period remain key swing factors, with any late corporate travel spikes or delays potentially pushing outcomes toward the upper end of the favored band.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive).
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volume
$1,066Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 9, 2026, 12:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Steady mid-May travel patterns have positioned the 17.5-18 million range as the market frontrunner at 72.5% implied probability, driven by consistent daily TSA screening volumes near 2.5 million on weekdays and typical weekend dips. Recent checkpoint data through May 10 shows reliable throughput without disruptions from weather, strikes, or economic shocks, reflecting ongoing air travel recovery and a balanced business-leisure mix. Traders note higher jet fuel costs have modestly tempered demand but not enough to drop totals below expectations, while early summer schedules sustain momentum ahead of the Memorial Day surge. The final days of the period remain key swing factors, with any late corporate travel spikes or delays potentially pushing outcomes toward the upper end of the favored band.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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