Wellington, New Zealand, experiences peak September gusts shaped by its position in the Roaring Forties and topographic compression of westerlies through the Cook Strait. Early-month model runs show typical spring intensification with northwest flows producing gusts of 50–70 km/h, but long-range ensemble spread creates balanced 50% odds across the three bins because forecasters cannot yet confirm whether a major low-pressure system will deliver an extreme event exceeding 102 km/h. Historical climatology indicates September maxima often fall between 90–110 km/h at exposed sites, while current neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions add modest uncertainty to wind speed without strongly favoring any single outcome. Updated NHC-style guidance and local high-resolution runs over the coming weeks will narrow the range as the month progresses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRajada de vento de pico na cidade mais ventosa do mundo em setembro
89 km/h or below 50%
90 to 101 km/h 50%
102 km/h or above 50%
89 km/h or below
50%
90 to 101 km/h
50%
102 km/h or above
50%
89 km/h or below 50%
90 to 101 km/h 50%
102 km/h or above 50%
89 km/h or below
50%
90 to 101 km/h
50%
102 km/h or above
50%
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=9&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=9&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
Wellington, New Zealand, experiences peak September gusts shaped by its position in the Roaring Forties and topographic compression of westerlies through the Cook Strait. Early-month model runs show typical spring intensification with northwest flows producing gusts of 50–70 km/h, but long-range ensemble spread creates balanced 50% odds across the three bins because forecasters cannot yet confirm whether a major low-pressure system will deliver an extreme event exceeding 102 km/h. Historical climatology indicates September maxima often fall between 90–110 km/h at exposed sites, while current neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions add modest uncertainty to wind speed without strongly favoring any single outcome. Updated NHC-style guidance and local high-resolution runs over the coming weeks will narrow the range as the month progresses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado

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