Alex Smalley's two-shot lead after 54 holes at Aronimink Golf Club has anchored trader consensus around his 17% implied probability, reflecting his steady ball-striking and recent form that vaulted him from long-shot status into contention for a first major title. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy sit closely behind at 14.6%, 13.1%, and 12%, respectively, buoyed by their strong positioning in the final round and proven major pedigree that keeps the leaderboard bunched. Scottie Scheffler's drop to fifth place after a subpar third round has compressed his chances to 4.5%, illustrating how quickly momentum shifts on a demanding layout. This tight clustering of top probabilities captures the unpredictable nature of a Sunday chase in a major where several players remain within realistic striking distance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAlex Smalley 17.0%
Jon Rahm 14.6%
Ludvig Aberg 13.1%
Rory McIlroy 12.0%
$5,458,225 Vol.
$5,458,225 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
13%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
7%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Harris English
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Alex Smalley 17.0%
Jon Rahm 14.6%
Ludvig Aberg 13.1%
Rory McIlroy 12.0%
$5,458,225 Vol.
$5,458,225 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
13%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
7%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Harris English
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Alex Smalley's two-shot lead after 54 holes at Aronimink Golf Club has anchored trader consensus around his 17% implied probability, reflecting his steady ball-striking and recent form that vaulted him from long-shot status into contention for a first major title. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy sit closely behind at 14.6%, 13.1%, and 12%, respectively, buoyed by their strong positioning in the final round and proven major pedigree that keeps the leaderboard bunched. Scottie Scheffler's drop to fifth place after a subpar third round has compressed his chances to 4.5%, illustrating how quickly momentum shifts on a demanding layout. This tight clustering of top probabilities captures the unpredictable nature of a Sunday chase in a major where several players remain within realistic striking distance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions