Recent below-average rainfall has positioned trader consensus around 3-4 inches for June 2026 in New York City, with only about 1.4-1.7 inches recorded through mid-month against a climatological normal of 4.54 inches at Central Park. Early June featured mostly dry conditions under a stable high-pressure pattern, limiting convective activity and thunderstorm development typical for the season. With roughly 12 days remaining, near-normal precipitation rates would likely add 1.5-2.5 inches, supporting the market's leading 3-4 inch outcome at 52.5% implied probability. Longer-range guidance indicates a modest uptick in moisture from Atlantic influences, though model spread and El Niño-related variability introduce uncertainty for exceeding 4 inches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPrecipitation in NYC in June?
3-4" 89%
4-5" 23%
5-6" 4.8%
>6" 4.1%
<2"
<1%
2-3"
<1%
3-4"
81%
4-5"
29%
5-6"
5%
>6"
4%
3-4" 89%
4-5" 23%
5-6" 4.8%
>6" 4.1%
<2"
<1%
2-3"
<1%
3-4"
81%
4-5"
29%
5-6"
5%
>6"
4%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for June 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of June 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 27, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for June 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of June 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent below-average rainfall has positioned trader consensus around 3-4 inches for June 2026 in New York City, with only about 1.4-1.7 inches recorded through mid-month against a climatological normal of 4.54 inches at Central Park. Early June featured mostly dry conditions under a stable high-pressure pattern, limiting convective activity and thunderstorm development typical for the season. With roughly 12 days remaining, near-normal precipitation rates would likely add 1.5-2.5 inches, supporting the market's leading 3-4 inch outcome at 52.5% implied probability. Longer-range guidance indicates a modest uptick in moisture from Atlantic influences, though model spread and El Niño-related variability introduce uncertainty for exceeding 4 inches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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