**Current forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and major models indicate a minimum temperature for Seoul on June 29 most likely near 20–21 °C.** This consensus drives the near-even 39 % market-implied odds on those two bins, with the 25 °C-or-higher outcome at 18 % reflecting residual uncertainty around any unexpected warming or model spread. Key scientific factors include the transition into the East Asian summer monsoon, which is increasing low-level humidity and cloud cover that reduces nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds and a stable high-pressure ridge currently favor clearer intervals that could allow temperatures to dip to the lower end of the range, while any increase in boundary-layer moisture or brief showers would limit overnight drops and push readings toward 21–22 °C. Historical late-June climatology shows average morning lows around 19–20 °C, providing a baseline that current conditions are slightly above. Model runs differ modestly on exact timing of any sea-breeze effects from the Yellow Sea and the degree of cloud cover overnight, creating the tight 20 °C versus 21 °C split. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours, particularly KMA evening briefings and ensemble minimum-temperature outputs, will be the primary catalyst for any shift in trader positioning ahead of resolution.