Joshua Van holds a slim edge in trader consensus as the projected UFC flyweight champion at the end of 2026, but the market remains tightly contested due to the high-stakes rematch with former champion Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 331 on September 19. Van captured the belt at UFC 323 in December 2025 when Pantoja suffered an elbow injury just 26 seconds into the fight, then made a successful first defense with a fifth-round TKO over Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328 in May. Pantoja, fully recovered and ranked among the top contenders, brings veteran experience and five prior title defenses, creating clear stylistic and motivational contrasts that could swing the outcome either way. With limited time remaining in the year after the rematch, any subsequent defenses or contender advancements carry reduced impact on year-end positioning, keeping implied probabilities closely bunched between the two leaders while fringe options like Manel Kape sit well behind.