President Javier Milei’s administration has moved away from earlier dollarization commitments toward a managed exchange-rate band and crawling peg backed by IMF financing and a U.S. currency swap line established in late 2025. With only weeks remaining before the June 30, 2026 deadline, no legislative framework or central-bank transition plan has advanced, leaving the peso as legal tender. Traders assign a 98.4 percent probability to “No” because these policy choices and the absence of congressional momentum create insurmountable barriers in the narrow remaining window. Late executive action or an unforeseen legislative push could theoretically alter the outcome, yet both face entrenched fiscal, political, and public-preference constraints that have already delayed similar reforms.