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icon for A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?

A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?

icon for A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?

A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?

Sim

1% chance
Polymarket

$15,155 Vol.

Sim

1% chance
Polymarket

$15,155 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.President Javier Milei's April 2026 public acknowledgment that Argentines prefer the peso over dollarization—citing lack of adoption despite optional "endogenous" dollar use and failed tax amnesties—has solidified trader consensus against full adoption by June 30, pricing "No" at 98.7%. The administration's shift to peso stabilization via a managed exchange rate band launched January 2026, coupled with rising foreign reserves from inflows and export growth, has reduced urgency for replacing the currency. Dollarization demands congressional approval, ample U.S. dollar reserves to redeem pesos, and likely IMF coordination—none advancing amid economic stabilization. With six weeks remaining, only a sudden crisis or policy reversal could shift odds, though Milei's non-forced approach signals low likelihood.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun.

Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
Volume
$15,155
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 31, 2025, 11:18 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.President Javier Milei's April 2026 public acknowledgment that Argentines prefer the peso over dollarization—citing lack of adoption despite optional "endogenous" dollar use and failed tax amnesties—has solidified trader consensus against full adoption by June 30, pricing "No" at 98.7%. The administration's shift to peso stabilization via a managed exchange rate band launched January 2026, coupled with rising foreign reserves from inflows and export growth, has reduced urgency for replacing the currency. Dollarization demands congressional approval, ample U.S. dollar reserves to redeem pesos, and likely IMF coordination—none advancing amid economic stabilization. With six weeks remaining, only a sudden crisis or policy reversal could shift odds, though Milei's non-forced approach signals low likelihood.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun.

Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
Volume
$15,155
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 31, 2025, 11:18 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 1¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 1% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?" has generated $15.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?" is "A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?" at just 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "A Argentina vai dolarizar até 30 de junho de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.