Belgium enters Group G as the clear frontrunner due to superior squad depth, experience at major tournaments, and individual quality from players such as Kevin De Bruyne and Thibaut Courtois, who are reported fit ahead of the June 15 opener against Egypt. Their strong European pedigree and consistent results in qualifying underpin the 70.5% implied probability for winning the group. Egypt sits second at 16.0% on the back of an unbeaten 2026 qualifying campaign and recent AFCON progress, offering attacking threat through Mohamed Salah while facing a pragmatic setup that has produced solid defensive records. Iran’s 11.0% reflects competitive historical standing in Asian football but incorporates recent off-field disruptions, including U.S. visa denials for technical staff that forced a training base shift to Mexico. New Zealand trails at 3.0% as the lowest-ranked side, with limited depth and minimal prior World Cup success limiting realistic advancement prospects. The opening matches on June 15 will provide the first on-pitch clarity for these pre-tournament assessments.