France enters the 2026 World Cup Group I as the clear frontrunner, with its deep squad, multiple World Cup finalists, and attacking options led by Kylian Mbappé underpinning the 65.5% implied probability. Norway sits second at 24.5% on the strength of Erling Haaland’s scoring form and a balanced midfield, positioning the side for a strong chance at a top-two finish. Senegal at 11% draws on Sadio Mané’s experience and defensive organization but faces a tougher path against higher-ranked opponents. Iraq remains a distant 0.8% outsider after a long absence from the tournament, with limited depth against this level of competition. The opening fixtures on June 16—France versus Senegal and Iraq versus Norway—will provide the first clarity on group standings ahead of the June 22 and 26 matches.