The Bank of Israel’s established easing bias, reinforced by 2026 inflation forecasts of 1.7–2.2 percent well inside the lower half of the 1–3 percent target range, underpins the 75 percent market-implied probability of a rate cut at the May 25 decision. After two 25-basis-point reductions earlier in the year that brought the benchmark to 4.00 percent, the March 30 hold reflected a temporary pause amid energy-price pressures and geopolitical tensions; subsequent stabilization has allowed one-year inflation expectations to settle near 1.5–2.0 percent. With April CPI data imminent and the Monetary Committee’s updated growth outlook likely supporting gradual easing, traders price in a high likelihood that subdued price pressures and resilient activity will prompt resumption of the rate path.