Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis, with fuel reserves exhausted and blackouts exceeding 20 hours daily across Havana and eastern provinces as of May 14, scattered protests erupted but were quickly contained by authorities, reflecting President Díaz-Canel's firm assertions that the government stands resilient. Traders' 71% implied probability on "No" stems from the regime's historical suppression of dissent via loyal security forces and Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, despite U.S. sanctions tightening oil supplies and recent CIA Director visits offering aid tied to reforms. No mass uprising or elite defections have materialized in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers to collapse by year-end amid limited external support from Russia or Venezuela.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПадение кубинского режима в 2026 году?
Падение кубинского режима в 2026 году?
Да
$250,110 Объем
$250,110 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$250,110 Объем
$250,110 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis, with fuel reserves exhausted and blackouts exceeding 20 hours daily across Havana and eastern provinces as of May 14, scattered protests erupted but were quickly contained by authorities, reflecting President Díaz-Canel's firm assertions that the government stands resilient. Traders' 71% implied probability on "No" stems from the regime's historical suppression of dissent via loyal security forces and Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, despite U.S. sanctions tightening oil supplies and recent CIA Director visits offering aid tied to reforms. No mass uprising or elite defections have materialized in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers to collapse by year-end amid limited external support from Russia or Venezuela.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Объем
$250,110Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis, with fuel reserves exhausted and blackouts exceeding 20 hours daily across Havana and eastern provinces as of May 14, scattered protests erupted but were quickly contained by authorities, reflecting President Díaz-Canel's firm assertions that the government stands resilient. Traders' 71% implied probability on "No" stems from the regime's historical suppression of dissent via loyal security forces and Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, despite U.S. sanctions tightening oil supplies and recent CIA Director visits offering aid tied to reforms. No mass uprising or elite defections have materialized in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers to collapse by year-end amid limited external support from Russia or Venezuela.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$250,110Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis, with fuel reserves exhausted and blackouts exceeding 20 hours daily across Havana and eastern provinces as of May 14, scattered protests erupted but were quickly contained by authorities, reflecting President Díaz-Canel's firm assertions that the government stands resilient. Traders' 71% implied probability on "No" stems from the regime's historical suppression of dissent via loyal security forces and Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, despite U.S. sanctions tightening oil supplies and recent CIA Director visits offering aid tied to reforms. No mass uprising or elite defections have materialized in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers to collapse by year-end amid limited external support from Russia or Venezuela.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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