Despite intensified U.S. sanctions and a fuel blockade imposed since January 2026 that have triggered widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain, the Cuban government has maintained institutional control. The armed forces continue to serve as the primary guarantor of stability, while authorities have advanced targeted economic measures, including eased restrictions on private investment, land use, fuel imports, and tourism sectors. Official statements emphasize openness to business talks without political concessions, and diplomatic channels with Washington remain stalled. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 85.5% probability for no regime change in 2026, underscoring the barriers posed by centralized authority and limited signs of organized internal challenge within the resolution period.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПадение кубинского режима в 2026 году?
Падение кубинского режима в 2026 году?
Да
14% вероятность
$1,625,686 Объем
$1,625,686 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
14% вероятность
$1,625,686 Объем
$1,625,686 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite intensified U.S. sanctions and a fuel blockade imposed since January 2026 that have triggered widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain, the Cuban government has maintained institutional control. The armed forces continue to serve as the primary guarantor of stability, while authorities have advanced targeted economic measures, including eased restrictions on private investment, land use, fuel imports, and tourism sectors. Official statements emphasize openness to business talks without political concessions, and diplomatic channels with Washington remain stalled. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 85.5% probability for no regime change in 2026, underscoring the barriers posed by centralized authority and limited signs of organized internal challenge within the resolution period.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Объем
$1,625,686Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite intensified U.S. sanctions and a fuel blockade imposed since January 2026 that have triggered widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain, the Cuban government has maintained institutional control. The armed forces continue to serve as the primary guarantor of stability, while authorities have advanced targeted economic measures, including eased restrictions on private investment, land use, fuel imports, and tourism sectors. Official statements emphasize openness to business talks without political concessions, and diplomatic channels with Washington remain stalled. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 85.5% probability for no regime change in 2026, underscoring the barriers posed by centralized authority and limited signs of organized internal challenge within the resolution period.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,625,686Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite intensified U.S. sanctions and a fuel blockade imposed since January 2026 that have triggered widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain, the Cuban government has maintained institutional control. The armed forces continue to serve as the primary guarantor of stability, while authorities have advanced targeted economic measures, including eased restrictions on private investment, land use, fuel imports, and tourism sectors. Official statements emphasize openness to business talks without political concessions, and diplomatic channels with Washington remain stalled. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 85.5% probability for no regime change in 2026, underscoring the barriers posed by centralized authority and limited signs of organized internal challenge within the resolution period.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы