Mount Etna's recent paroxysmal episodes in July and mid-August 2026 featured Strombolian activity, lava fountaining, and ash plumes reaching 7 km, consistent with VEI 2 events, but the main effusive and explosive phases have now subsided into sporadic weak ash emissions and medium-level volcanic tremor under a green VONA code. This post-eruption lull supports the narrow market lean toward no additional VEI 2+ eruption through year-end, as INGV monitoring shows no significant ground deformation or escalating seismicity. Key uncertainties include Etna's rapid shifts between quiescence and paroxysms driven by variable magma supply and conduit dynamics, with limited ability to forecast exact timing or intensity months ahead. Continued INGV seismic, infrasound, and GNSS data releases could quickly alter sentiment if tremor rises or new vents open.