Recent developments in EU-Russia diplomatic relations support traders' 83.5% implied probability against any member state expelling Russia's ambassador by December 31. Hungary's September 8 expulsion of ten Russian diplomats for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention marked a policy shift under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, yet officials explicitly preserved bilateral channels and avoided targeting the ambassador. Similar targeted actions in Italy and calls by Poland for broader staff reductions reflect ongoing concerns over espionage but have not escalated to ambassador-level measures. Broader EU discussions on visa and movement restrictions, alongside Vladimir Putin's September 19 statement favoring restored ties, indicate continued preference for calibrated responses over full diplomatic rupture through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
16% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
16% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in EU-Russia diplomatic relations support traders' 83.5% implied probability against any member state expelling Russia's ambassador by December 31. Hungary's September 8 expulsion of ten Russian diplomats for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention marked a policy shift under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, yet officials explicitly preserved bilateral channels and avoided targeting the ambassador. Similar targeted actions in Italy and calls by Poland for broader staff reductions reflect ongoing concerns over espionage but have not escalated to ambassador-level measures. Broader EU discussions on visa and movement restrictions, alongside Vladimir Putin's September 19 statement favoring restored ties, indicate continued preference for calibrated responses over full diplomatic rupture through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Объем
$1,244Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in EU-Russia diplomatic relations support traders' 83.5% implied probability against any member state expelling Russia's ambassador by December 31. Hungary's September 8 expulsion of ten Russian diplomats for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention marked a policy shift under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, yet officials explicitly preserved bilateral channels and avoided targeting the ambassador. Similar targeted actions in Italy and calls by Poland for broader staff reductions reflect ongoing concerns over espionage but have not escalated to ambassador-level measures. Broader EU discussions on visa and movement restrictions, alongside Vladimir Putin's September 19 statement favoring restored ties, indicate continued preference for calibrated responses over full diplomatic rupture through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,244Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in EU-Russia diplomatic relations support traders' 83.5% implied probability against any member state expelling Russia's ambassador by December 31. Hungary's September 8 expulsion of ten Russian diplomats for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention marked a policy shift under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, yet officials explicitly preserved bilateral channels and avoided targeting the ambassador. Similar targeted actions in Italy and calls by Poland for broader staff reductions reflect ongoing concerns over espionage but have not escalated to ambassador-level measures. Broader EU discussions on visa and movement restrictions, alongside Vladimir Putin's September 19 statement favoring restored ties, indicate continued preference for calibrated responses over full diplomatic rupture through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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