Market participants price a clear consensus around no change to the federal funds rate at the January FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations that inflation will remain above the 2% target while labor market conditions stay sufficiently resilient to support the current policy stance. Recent CPI and employment data have anchored these implied probabilities, with traders viewing the modest chances of a 25 basis point move in either direction as capturing balanced risks rather than a strong directional signal. Forward-looking guidance from Fed officials and the upcoming path of inflation and GDP releases through late 2026 will serve as the primary catalysts that could shift these odds ahead of the meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 62%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
$34,852 Объем
$34,852 Объем
27 янв. 2027 г.
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов
20%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
2%
No change 62%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
$34,852 Объем
$34,852 Объем
27 янв. 2027 г.
50+ bps decrease
$3,886 Объем
5%
25 bps decrease
$7,430 Объем
15%
No change
$14,028 Объем
62%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов
$8,045 Объем
20%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,463 Объем
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market participants price a clear consensus around no change to the federal funds rate at the January FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations that inflation will remain above the 2% target while labor market conditions stay sufficiently resilient to support the current policy stance. Recent CPI and employment data have anchored these implied probabilities, with traders viewing the modest chances of a 25 basis point move in either direction as capturing balanced risks rather than a strong directional signal. Forward-looking guidance from Fed officials and the upcoming path of inflation and GDP releases through late 2026 will serve as the primary catalysts that could shift these odds ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Объем
$34,852Дата окончания
27 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market participants price a clear consensus around no change to the federal funds rate at the January FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations that inflation will remain above the 2% target while labor market conditions stay sufficiently resilient to support the current policy stance. Recent CPI and employment data have anchored these implied probabilities, with traders viewing the modest chances of a 25 basis point move in either direction as capturing balanced risks rather than a strong directional signal. Forward-looking guidance from Fed officials and the upcoming path of inflation and GDP releases through late 2026 will serve as the primary catalysts that could shift these odds ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$34,852Дата окончания
27 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market participants price a clear consensus around no change to the federal funds rate at the January FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations that inflation will remain above the 2% target while labor market conditions stay sufficiently resilient to support the current policy stance. Recent CPI and employment data have anchored these implied probabilities, with traders viewing the modest chances of a 25 basis point move in either direction as capturing balanced risks rather than a strong directional signal. Forward-looking guidance from Fed officials and the upcoming path of inflation and GDP releases through late 2026 will serve as the primary catalysts that could shift these odds ahead of the meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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