Recent endorsements of Dario Amodei’s “We Must Pace the Frontier” essay by Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Demis Hassabis have produced rare public alignment among OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and DeepMind on embedded third-party evaluators and voluntary safety standards, yet trader consensus favors “No” because these statements stop short of any announced joint limit on development speed. Competitive pressures, antitrust risks, and the absence of enforceable mechanisms—especially coordination with China—have kept talks limited to working groups and unilateral commitments rather than a binding pacing pact. The July employee letter and ongoing U.S. legislative efforts like the FRONTIER Act further frame the debate around building future tools instead of immediate rate restrictions, leaving the probability of a formal 2026 agreement below even odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЛаборатории Frontier AI объявляют о соглашении о совместной стимуляции в 2026 году?
Лаборатории Frontier AI объявляют о соглашении о совместной стимуляции в 2026 году?
Да
35% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
35% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent endorsements of Dario Amodei’s “We Must Pace the Frontier” essay by Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Demis Hassabis have produced rare public alignment among OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and DeepMind on embedded third-party evaluators and voluntary safety standards, yet trader consensus favors “No” because these statements stop short of any announced joint limit on development speed. Competitive pressures, antitrust risks, and the absence of enforceable mechanisms—especially coordination with China—have kept talks limited to working groups and unilateral commitments rather than a binding pacing pact. The July employee letter and ongoing U.S. legislative efforts like the FRONTIER Act further frame the debate around building future tools instead of immediate rate restrictions, leaving the probability of a formal 2026 agreement below even odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 14, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$568Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 8:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent endorsements of Dario Amodei’s “We Must Pace the Frontier” essay by Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Demis Hassabis have produced rare public alignment among OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and DeepMind on embedded third-party evaluators and voluntary safety standards, yet trader consensus favors “No” because these statements stop short of any announced joint limit on development speed. Competitive pressures, antitrust risks, and the absence of enforceable mechanisms—especially coordination with China—have kept talks limited to working groups and unilateral commitments rather than a binding pacing pact. The July employee letter and ongoing U.S. legislative efforts like the FRONTIER Act further frame the debate around building future tools instead of immediate rate restrictions, leaving the probability of a formal 2026 agreement below even odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$568Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 8:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent endorsements of Dario Amodei’s “We Must Pace the Frontier” essay by Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Demis Hassabis have produced rare public alignment among OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and DeepMind on embedded third-party evaluators and voluntary safety standards, yet trader consensus favors “No” because these statements stop short of any announced joint limit on development speed. Competitive pressures, antitrust risks, and the absence of enforceable mechanisms—especially coordination with China—have kept talks limited to working groups and unilateral commitments rather than a binding pacing pact. The July employee letter and ongoing U.S. legislative efforts like the FRONTIER Act further frame the debate around building future tools instead of immediate rate restrictions, leaving the probability of a formal 2026 agreement below even odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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