Recent private funding talks seeking at least $30 billion at a roughly $1.4 trillion pre-money valuation, alongside annualized revenue run rates approaching $70 billion with rapid enterprise growth, underpin the 55.6% market-implied odds for a 1.5T+ closing market cap upon IPO. CEO Sam Altman’s September 2026 confirmation that an offering would not occur this year due to AI safety priorities shifted timelines toward 2027, supporting the 23.5% probability assigned to no IPO by December 31, 2027. Trader consensus, reflected in these skin-in-the-game probabilities, incorporates the March 2026 $852 billion round and accelerating revenue trajectory while acknowledging uncertainties around regulatory pathways, market conditions, and final IPO timing.