**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНет IPO до сентября 2026 года 100.0%
<250 млн долларов <1%
$250M-$300M <1%
$300M–$350M <1%
$18,180 Объем
$18,180 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<250 млн долларов
Нет
$250M-$300M
Нет
$300M–$350M
Нет
$350M-$400M
Нет
$400 млн – $450 млн
Нет
>450 млн долларов
Нет
Нет IPO до сентября 2026 года
Да
Нет IPO до сентября 2026 года 100.0%
<250 млн долларов <1%
$250M-$300M <1%
$300M–$350M <1%
$18,180 Объем
$18,180 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<250 млн долларов
$1,183 Объем
Нет
$250M-$300M
$1,113 Объем
Нет
$300M–$350M
$1,742 Объем
Нет
$350M-$400M
$837 Объем
Нет
$400 млн – $450 млн
$629 Объем
Нет
>450 млн долларов
$1,136 Объем
Нет
Нет IPO до сентября 2026 года
$11,539 Объем
Да
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.**
The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET
Объем
$18,180Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.**
The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Объем
$18,180Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы