Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (53.3%) to no IPO by December 31, 2027, driven by the stalled timeline after Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Secondary-market valuations have compressed to roughly $8.5–10 billion on platforms such as Forge Global, well below the 2021 $15 billion peak and Microsoft’s rejected $12 billion offer, reflecting softer multiples for consumer platforms versus AI and infrastructure peers. With annualized revenue estimated at $600–900 million from approximately 200 million monthly active users, monetization progress and broader equity-market conditions for non-tech-growth names constitute the main swing factors. The 8–11 billion closing market-cap outcome leads IPO scenarios at 11.6% implied probability, underscoring valuation reset and selective IPO appetite as central dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКапитализация закрытия IPO Discord
Капитализация закрытия IPO Discord
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года 53.5%
8–11 млрд 11.6%
14–17 млрд 9.8%
11–14 млрд 8.4%
$97,421 Объем
$97,421 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
<5 млрд
2%
5–8 млрд
2%
8–11 млрд
12%
11–14 млрд
8%
14–17 млрд
10%
17–20 млрд
4%
20 млрд+
5%
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года
54%
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года 53.5%
8–11 млрд 11.6%
14–17 млрд 9.8%
11–14 млрд 8.4%
$97,421 Объем
$97,421 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
<5 млрд
$16,497 Объем
2%
5–8 млрд
$5,196 Объем
2%
8–11 млрд
$14,594 Объем
12%
11–14 млрд
$11,436 Объем
8%
14–17 млрд
$3,141 Объем
10%
17–20 млрд
$5,633 Объем
4%
20 млрд+
$5,354 Объем
5%
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года
$35,570 Объем
54%
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (53.3%) to no IPO by December 31, 2027, driven by the stalled timeline after Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Secondary-market valuations have compressed to roughly $8.5–10 billion on platforms such as Forge Global, well below the 2021 $15 billion peak and Microsoft’s rejected $12 billion offer, reflecting softer multiples for consumer platforms versus AI and infrastructure peers. With annualized revenue estimated at $600–900 million from approximately 200 million monthly active users, monetization progress and broader equity-market conditions for non-tech-growth names constitute the main swing factors. The 8–11 billion closing market-cap outcome leads IPO scenarios at 11.6% implied probability, underscoring valuation reset and selective IPO appetite as central dynamics.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Jun 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Объем
$97,421Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (53.3%) to no IPO by December 31, 2027, driven by the stalled timeline after Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Secondary-market valuations have compressed to roughly $8.5–10 billion on platforms such as Forge Global, well below the 2021 $15 billion peak and Microsoft’s rejected $12 billion offer, reflecting softer multiples for consumer platforms versus AI and infrastructure peers. With annualized revenue estimated at $600–900 million from approximately 200 million monthly active users, monetization progress and broader equity-market conditions for non-tech-growth names constitute the main swing factors. The 8–11 billion closing market-cap outcome leads IPO scenarios at 11.6% implied probability, underscoring valuation reset and selective IPO appetite as central dynamics.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Объем
$97,421Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (53.3%) to no IPO by December 31, 2027, driven by the stalled timeline after Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Secondary-market valuations have compressed to roughly $8.5–10 billion on platforms such as Forge Global, well below the 2021 $15 billion peak and Microsoft’s rejected $12 billion offer, reflecting softer multiples for consumer platforms versus AI and infrastructure peers. With annualized revenue estimated at $600–900 million from approximately 200 million monthly active users, monetization progress and broader equity-market conditions for non-tech-growth names constitute the main swing factors. The 8–11 billion closing market-cap outcome leads IPO scenarios at 11.6% implied probability, underscoring valuation reset and selective IPO appetite as central dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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