Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоJuly 7 41%
July 8 22%
July 9 13.3%
Not released before August 7.2%
$160,350 Объем
$160,350 Объем
31 июл. 2026 г.
July 1
2%
July 2
3%
July 3
1%
July 4
<1%
July 5
<1%
July 6
3%
July 7
41%
July 8
22%
July 9
13%
July 10
1%
July 11
2%
July 12
5%
July 13
4%
July 14
2%
July 15
1%
July 16
2%
July 17
1%
July 18
3%
July 19
2%
July 20
<1%
July 21
<1%
July 22
<1%
July 23
1%
July 24
1%
July 25
<1%
July 26
<1%
July 27
<1%
July 28
<1%
July 29
<1%
July 30
<1%
July 31
<1%
Not released before August
7%
July 7 41%
July 8 22%
July 9 13.3%
Not released before August 7.2%
$160,350 Объем
$160,350 Объем
31 июл. 2026 г.
July 1
$5,129 Объем
2%
July 2
$3,251 Объем
3%
July 3
$1,383 Объем
1%
July 4
$2,655 Объем
<1%
July 5
$697 Объем
<1%
July 6
$1,703 Объем
3%
July 7
$37,118 Объем
41%
July 8
$4,239 Объем
22%
July 9
$19,816 Объем
13%
July 10
$7,162 Объем
1%
July 11
$2,985 Объем
2%
July 12
$509 Объем
5%
July 13
$1,643 Объем
4%
July 14
$1,540 Объем
2%
July 15
$2,040 Объем
1%
July 16
$11,845 Объем
2%
July 17
$2,857 Объем
1%
July 18
$432 Объем
3%
July 19
$630 Объем
2%
July 20
$445 Объем
<1%
July 21
$887 Объем
<1%
July 22
$481 Объем
<1%
July 23
$1,500 Объем
1%
July 24
$1,477 Объем
1%
July 25
$390 Объем
<1%
July 26
$354 Объем
<1%
July 27
$740 Объем
<1%
July 28
$1,953 Объем
<1%
July 29
$682 Объем
<1%
July 30
$2,460 Объем
<1%
July 31
$1,730 Объем
<1%
Not released before August
$11,651 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ET
Объем
$160,350Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$160,350Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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