**Grok 5 remains in training on xAI’s Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale supercluster as of late August 2026, with no public release after missed Q1 and Q2 targets.** Elon Musk’s most recent guidance from the August SpaceX earnings call points to a launch before year-end, incorporating SpaceX engineering data into the expected 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts architecture with multimodal capabilities. Trader consensus on Polymarket has consolidated around the December 31 window (leading at ~63–69% implied probability) due to the pattern of timeline slips, even as the company maintains a rapid cadence with Grok 4.5 (July) and 4.6 (early August) releases that emphasize speed, cost efficiency, and coding performance. Key swing factors include potential training completion signals, benchmark drops, or infrastructure updates that could accelerate or further delay the flagship large language model amid intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGrok 5 выпустил...?
Grok 5 выпустил...?
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
<1%
31 октября
18%
30 ноября
22%
31 декабря
70%
$8,565 Объем
31 августа
$3,541 Объем
<1%
31 октября
$1,769 Объем
18%
30 ноября
$21 Объем
22%
31 декабря
$1,711 Объем
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains in training on xAI’s Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale supercluster as of late August 2026, with no public release after missed Q1 and Q2 targets.** Elon Musk’s most recent guidance from the August SpaceX earnings call points to a launch before year-end, incorporating SpaceX engineering data into the expected 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts architecture with multimodal capabilities. Trader consensus on Polymarket has consolidated around the December 31 window (leading at ~63–69% implied probability) due to the pattern of timeline slips, even as the company maintains a rapid cadence with Grok 4.5 (July) and 4.6 (early August) releases that emphasize speed, cost efficiency, and coding performance. Key swing factors include potential training completion signals, benchmark drops, or infrastructure updates that could accelerate or further delay the flagship large language model amid intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Объем
$8,565Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains in training on xAI’s Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale supercluster as of late August 2026, with no public release after missed Q1 and Q2 targets.** Elon Musk’s most recent guidance from the August SpaceX earnings call points to a launch before year-end, incorporating SpaceX engineering data into the expected 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts architecture with multimodal capabilities. Trader consensus on Polymarket has consolidated around the December 31 window (leading at ~63–69% implied probability) due to the pattern of timeline slips, even as the company maintains a rapid cadence with Grok 4.5 (July) and 4.6 (early August) releases that emphasize speed, cost efficiency, and coding performance. Key swing factors include potential training completion signals, benchmark drops, or infrastructure updates that could accelerate or further delay the flagship large language model amid intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$8,565Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Grok 5 remains in training on xAI’s Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale supercluster as of late August 2026, with no public release after missed Q1 and Q2 targets.** Elon Musk’s most recent guidance from the August SpaceX earnings call points to a launch before year-end, incorporating SpaceX engineering data into the expected 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts architecture with multimodal capabilities. Trader consensus on Polymarket has consolidated around the December 31 window (leading at ~63–69% implied probability) due to the pattern of timeline slips, even as the company maintains a rapid cadence with Grok 4.5 (July) and 4.6 (early August) releases that emphasize speed, cost efficiency, and coding performance. Key swing factors include potential training completion signals, benchmark drops, or infrastructure updates that could accelerate or further delay the flagship large language model amid intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы