Recent weather model ensembles from major centers show Beijing's May 22 daytime high likely peaking between 20–22 °C, producing the market's tight clustering around those outcomes. Stable high-pressure ridging over northern China is suppressing strong warm advection while light southerly winds and moderate boundary-layer moisture limit surface heating rates. Ensemble spread arises mainly from small differences in simulated cloud cover and timing of any weak frontal passage, which could shave 1–2 °C off the maximum. The modest edge for 22 °C mirrors the upper quartile of current deterministic and probabilistic guidance, with traders awaiting the final China Meteorological Administration analysis for official station data resolution.