Jeddah’s July climatology drives the elevated odds for 40°C or higher, as the Red Sea coastal location experiences peak summer heating with average daily highs near 38–40°C and frequent excursions above that threshold under clear skies and light winds. National Center for Meteorology records show July mean maxima of 40.3°C across Saudi stations, while recent observations from mid-July 2026 have already reached 38–39°C. Short-range forecast models from regional agencies indicate continued stable high-pressure conditions through July 20 with minimal cloud cover or onshore flow that could moderate temperatures, supporting trader consensus around the 40°C threshold. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum reported for the Jeddah station, with any late-model cooling or measurement adjustment the main remaining uncertainty before the close of the trading window.