Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on July 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 4?
21°C 34%
22°C 32%
20°C 14%
23°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 июл. 2026 г.
17°C or below
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
5%
20°C
14%
21°C
34%
22°C
32%
23°C
12%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 34%
22°C 32%
20°C 14%
23°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 июл. 2026 г.
17°C or below
$339 Объем
1%
18°C
$200 Объем
3%
19°C
$74 Объем
5%
20°C
$42 Объем
14%
21°C
$99 Объем
34%
22°C
$396 Объем
32%
23°C
$416 Объем
12%
24°C
$42 Объем
6%
25°C
$153 Объем
1%
26°C
$115 Объем
1%
27°C or higher
$351 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Объем
$2,227Дата окончания
4 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$2,227Дата окончания
4 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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