Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 2?
26°C 29%
25°C 22%
27°C 12%
24°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 июл. 2026 г.
19°C or below
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
6%
24°C
12%
25°C
22%
26°C
29%
27°C
12%
28°C
5%
29°C or higher
5%
26°C 29%
25°C 22%
27°C 12%
24°C 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 июл. 2026 г.
19°C or below
$604 Объем
1%
20°C
$203 Объем
1%
21°C
$31 Объем
1%
22°C
$0 Объем
1%
23°C
$0 Объем
6%
24°C
$51 Объем
12%
25°C
$23 Объем
22%
26°C
$187 Объем
29%
27°C
$0 Объем
12%
28°C
$0 Объем
5%
29°C or higher
$0 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Объем
$1,098Дата окончания
2 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,098Дата окончания
2 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы