Recent cooling after France’s late-June heatwave, with Météo-France and ensemble models showing overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies, drives trader focus on 14–16 °C minima for Paris on July 2. Post-frontal northeasterly flow and dew-point suppression are expected to produce the day’s lowest readings near dawn, while daytime highs remain in the mid-20s. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover creates the tight clustering around 14 °C (43 % implied probability), with lower-probability tails reflecting residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Updated high-resolution runs and Météo-France vigilance bulletins in the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLowest temperature in Paris on July 2?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 2?
15°C 40%
16°C 36%
17°C 31%
18°C 28%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 июл. 2026 г.
12°C or below
18%
13°C
16%
14°C
27%
15°C
40%
16°C
36%
17°C
31%
18°C
28%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C or higher
7%
15°C 40%
16°C 36%
17°C 31%
18°C 28%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 июл. 2026 г.
12°C or below
$0 Объем
18%
13°C
$0 Объем
16%
14°C
$8 Объем
27%
15°C
$0 Объем
40%
16°C
$0 Объем
36%
17°C
$0 Объем
31%
18°C
$0 Объем
28%
19°C
$5 Объем
1%
20°C
$75 Объем
3%
21°C
$274 Объем
4%
22°C or higher
$92 Объем
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling after France’s late-June heatwave, with Météo-France and ensemble models showing overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies, drives trader focus on 14–16 °C minima for Paris on July 2. Post-frontal northeasterly flow and dew-point suppression are expected to produce the day’s lowest readings near dawn, while daytime highs remain in the mid-20s. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover creates the tight clustering around 14 °C (43 % implied probability), with lower-probability tails reflecting residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Updated high-resolution runs and Météo-France vigilance bulletins in the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$268Дата окончания
2 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling after France’s late-June heatwave, with Météo-France and ensemble models showing overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies, drives trader focus on 14–16 °C minima for Paris on July 2. Post-frontal northeasterly flow and dew-point suppression are expected to produce the day’s lowest readings near dawn, while daytime highs remain in the mid-20s. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover creates the tight clustering around 14 °C (43 % implied probability), with lower-probability tails reflecting residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Updated high-resolution runs and Météo-France vigilance bulletins in the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$268Дата окончания
2 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling after France’s late-June heatwave, with Météo-France and ensemble models showing overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies, drives trader focus on 14–16 °C minima for Paris on July 2. Post-frontal northeasterly flow and dew-point suppression are expected to produce the day’s lowest readings near dawn, while daytime highs remain in the mid-20s. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover creates the tight clustering around 14 °C (43 % implied probability), with lower-probability tails reflecting residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Updated high-resolution runs and Météo-France vigilance bulletins in the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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