Recent hotter-than-expected October CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise versus 0.3% consensus and 0.3% core increase, combined with Fed Governor Waller's hawkish comments favoring a potential 50 basis point December hike, have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield sharply higher to near 4.99%. This reflects market-implied odds shifting toward faster policy tightening, with the benchmark yield rebounding after trading below 4.9% earlier in November. The October labor report added context with 4.1% unemployment and 165,000 job gains. Key upcoming catalysts include the November 18 release of October FOMC minutes and the December 8-9 policy meeting, where Treasury yields and inflation trajectory will continue shaping trader consensus on near-term rate paths.
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