SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
Сколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
5-6 47%
<5 42%
7-8 5.9%
11-12 1.6%
$513,130 Объем
$513,130 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
<5
39%
5-6
47%
7-8
6%
9–10
<1%
11-12
2%
13–14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 47%
<5 42%
7-8 5.9%
11-12 1.6%
$513,130 Объем
$513,130 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
<5
$102,744 Объем
39%
5-6
$117,333 Объем
47%
7-8
$161,650 Объем
6%
9–10
$63,394 Объем
<1%
11-12
$10,325 Объем
2%
13–14
$11,020 Объем
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Объем
<1%
>16
$14,618 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Объем
$513,130Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$513,130Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы