SpaceX's measured progress through mid-2026, with only two Starship flight tests completed by August (Flights 12 and 13), underpins trader focus on the 5-6 launch range. Recent successes, including Flight 13's July deployment of upgraded Starlink V3 satellites on the second V3 vehicle iteration, have validated core systems while highlighting ongoing needs for FAA regulatory approvals on orbital attempts and tower catches. Elon Musk's August earnings comments on targeting Flight 14 by month-end or September, followed by monthly cadence increases, position the market around a gradual ramp from Starbase rather than rapid scaling. Key swing factors include ship catch demonstrations, first full orbital insertion, and production scaling for additional vehicles, all subject to technical and permitting timelines that could limit 2026 totals below six or enable modest upside.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
Сколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
5-6 63%
<5 33%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 2.8%
$492,887 Объем
$492,887 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
<5
33%
5-6
63%
7-8
8%
9–10
3%
11-12
3%
13–14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 63%
<5 33%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 2.8%
$492,887 Объем
$492,887 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
<5
$99,128 Объем
33%
5-6
$113,791 Объем
63%
7-8
$158,458 Объем
8%
9–10
$61,464 Объем
3%
11-12
$8,371 Объем
3%
13–14
$9,146 Объем
<1%
15-16
$30,046 Объем
<1%
>16
$12,483 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's measured progress through mid-2026, with only two Starship flight tests completed by August (Flights 12 and 13), underpins trader focus on the 5-6 launch range. Recent successes, including Flight 13's July deployment of upgraded Starlink V3 satellites on the second V3 vehicle iteration, have validated core systems while highlighting ongoing needs for FAA regulatory approvals on orbital attempts and tower catches. Elon Musk's August earnings comments on targeting Flight 14 by month-end or September, followed by monthly cadence increases, position the market around a gradual ramp from Starbase rather than rapid scaling. Key swing factors include ship catch demonstrations, first full orbital insertion, and production scaling for additional vehicles, all subject to technical and permitting timelines that could limit 2026 totals below six or enable modest upside.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Объем
$492,887Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's measured progress through mid-2026, with only two Starship flight tests completed by August (Flights 12 and 13), underpins trader focus on the 5-6 launch range. Recent successes, including Flight 13's July deployment of upgraded Starlink V3 satellites on the second V3 vehicle iteration, have validated core systems while highlighting ongoing needs for FAA regulatory approvals on orbital attempts and tower catches. Elon Musk's August earnings comments on targeting Flight 14 by month-end or September, followed by monthly cadence increases, position the market around a gradual ramp from Starbase rather than rapid scaling. Key swing factors include ship catch demonstrations, first full orbital insertion, and production scaling for additional vehicles, all subject to technical and permitting timelines that could limit 2026 totals below six or enable modest upside.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$492,887Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's measured progress through mid-2026, with only two Starship flight tests completed by August (Flights 12 and 13), underpins trader focus on the 5-6 launch range. Recent successes, including Flight 13's July deployment of upgraded Starlink V3 satellites on the second V3 vehicle iteration, have validated core systems while highlighting ongoing needs for FAA regulatory approvals on orbital attempts and tower catches. Elon Musk's August earnings comments on targeting Flight 14 by month-end or September, followed by monthly cadence increases, position the market around a gradual ramp from Starbase rather than rapid scaling. Key swing factors include ship catch demonstrations, first full orbital insertion, and production scaling for additional vehicles, all subject to technical and permitting timelines that could limit 2026 totals below six or enable modest upside.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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