Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.8% implied probability on a $50-60 billion SpaceX IPO raise, with $70-80 billion next at 24%, reflecting caution amid hype for the largest offering ever despite recent S-1 draft filings targeting $70-75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation post-xAI merger. Driving this positioning: December 2025's $800 billion tender offer at $421 per share set a high private benchmark, bolstered by February 2026's xAI integration at $1.25 trillion combined value and Starlink's $24.8 billion cash reserves funding AI capex. Elon Musk's 60 million-share incentive vesting at $500 billion market cap milestones underscores ambitious scaling, yet traders discount risks from Starship delays and macro volatility. Imminent prospectus filing next week and June 8 roadshow loom as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$139,066 Объем
$139,066 Объем
<40 млрд
13%
40-50 млрд
8%
50-60 млрд
36%
60-70 млрд
10%
70–80 млрд
24%
80-90 млрд
19%
90-100 млрд
6%
100-110 млрд
4%
110-120 млрд
4%
120 млрд+
5%
$139,066 Объем
$139,066 Объем
<40 млрд
$10,344 Объем
13%
40-50 млрд
$5,642 Объем
8%
50-60 млрд
$33,199 Объем
36%
60-70 млрд
$14,185 Объем
10%
70–80 млрд
$24,628 Объем
24%
80-90 млрд
$15,593 Объем
19%
90-100 млрд
$10,727 Объем
6%
100-110 млрд
$7,565 Объем
4%
110-120 млрд
$9,411 Объем
4%
120 млрд+
$7,772 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.8% implied probability on a $50-60 billion SpaceX IPO raise, with $70-80 billion next at 24%, reflecting caution amid hype for the largest offering ever despite recent S-1 draft filings targeting $70-75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation post-xAI merger. Driving this positioning: December 2025's $800 billion tender offer at $421 per share set a high private benchmark, bolstered by February 2026's xAI integration at $1.25 trillion combined value and Starlink's $24.8 billion cash reserves funding AI capex. Elon Musk's 60 million-share incentive vesting at $500 billion market cap milestones underscores ambitious scaling, yet traders discount risks from Starship delays and macro volatility. Imminent prospectus filing next week and June 8 roadshow loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Объем
$139,066Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.8% implied probability on a $50-60 billion SpaceX IPO raise, with $70-80 billion next at 24%, reflecting caution amid hype for the largest offering ever despite recent S-1 draft filings targeting $70-75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation post-xAI merger. Driving this positioning: December 2025's $800 billion tender offer at $421 per share set a high private benchmark, bolstered by February 2026's xAI integration at $1.25 trillion combined value and Starlink's $24.8 billion cash reserves funding AI capex. Elon Musk's 60 million-share incentive vesting at $500 billion market cap milestones underscores ambitious scaling, yet traders discount risks from Starship delays and macro volatility. Imminent prospectus filing next week and June 8 roadshow loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$139,066Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.8% implied probability on a $50-60 billion SpaceX IPO raise, with $70-80 billion next at 24%, reflecting caution amid hype for the largest offering ever despite recent S-1 draft filings targeting $70-75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation post-xAI merger. Driving this positioning: December 2025's $800 billion tender offer at $421 per share set a high private benchmark, bolstered by February 2026's xAI integration at $1.25 trillion combined value and Starlink's $24.8 billion cash reserves funding AI capex. Elon Musk's 60 million-share incentive vesting at $500 billion market cap milestones underscores ambitious scaling, yet traders discount risks from Starship delays and macro volatility. Imminent prospectus filing next week and June 8 roadshow loom as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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