US-Iran negotiations to end seven months of conflict remain stalled, with Washington demanding verifiable limits on Tehran's uranium enrichment capacity and Tehran rejecting concessions that would end its program. Recent statements from US Vice President JD Vance on October 7 underscored the need for meaningful reductions, while IAEA reports confirm inspectors lack access to damaged sites at Natanz and Fordow following 2025 strikes, leaving the status of remaining 60% enriched material unclear. Iran's foreign minister has signaled willingness to discuss stockpile issues only after sanctions relief and restored trust, with no framework for a full halt by the October 31 deadline. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions and the short timeline, though a last-minute diplomatic shift on verification or sanctions could still alter outcomes.