Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a commanding majority in the February 2026 lower house election, giving the ruling LDP-Japan Innovation Party coalition over two-thirds of seats and reducing pressure for another early dissolution. Recent developments reinforce stability: the September cabinet reshuffle maintained continuity, approval ratings hover near 59 percent, and an extraordinary Diet session opens October 5 focused on consumption tax relief and lower house seat reductions rather than electoral timing. With the four-year term extending well beyond 2026 and no immediate no-confidence threats or coalition fractures, traders assign only a 3.5 percent chance of dissolution this year. Late-year shifts could still arise from sharp poll declines, major scandals, or unexpected opposition consolidation, though none appear imminent.