Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts indicate a minimum temperature near 17–18°C for London on August 2 under generally mild, above-normal conditions for early August, supported by light winds and limited radiative cooling. Model consensus shows warm southerly flow limiting overnight drops, though small shifts in cloud cover or Atlantic trough positioning could allow slightly cooler readings in the mid-teens if clearer skies enhance heat loss. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 13–18°C reflects this narrow forecast range and typical ensemble spread for a 48-hour horizon, while the elevated probability assigned to 11°C or below captures residual downside risk from any unexpected northerly perturbation. Historical August minima average near 13–14°C, but 2026’s record-warm nighttime trend has kept trader focus on the upper side of that baseline ahead of final model updates.