OpenAI’s recent pattern of anonymously testing frontier large language models on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena continues to shape sentiment around the next release. GPT-5.5, launched April 23, 2026, rapidly climbed past 1500 Elo while competing directly with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, highlighting gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. Traders monitor leaks, developer previews, and leaderboard sightings for signals of an imminent successor—potentially GPT-5.6 or an o-series update—expected to follow the same blind-evaluation route. Regulatory scrutiny, compute limits, and the fast pace of rival releases remain key variables that could alter debut timing and initial performance thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNext OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?
Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?
$106,362 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
1450+
78%
1470+
75%
$106,362 Объем
1450+
$24,805 Объем
78%
1470+
$25,841 Объем
75%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s recent pattern of anonymously testing frontier large language models on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena continues to shape sentiment around the next release. GPT-5.5, launched April 23, 2026, rapidly climbed past 1500 Elo while competing directly with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, highlighting gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. Traders monitor leaks, developer previews, and leaderboard sightings for signals of an imminent successor—potentially GPT-5.6 or an o-series update—expected to follow the same blind-evaluation route. Regulatory scrutiny, compute limits, and the fast pace of rival releases remain key variables that could alter debut timing and initial performance thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Объем
$106,362Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s recent pattern of anonymously testing frontier large language models on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena continues to shape sentiment around the next release. GPT-5.5, launched April 23, 2026, rapidly climbed past 1500 Elo while competing directly with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, highlighting gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. Traders monitor leaks, developer previews, and leaderboard sightings for signals of an imminent successor—potentially GPT-5.6 or an o-series update—expected to follow the same blind-evaluation route. Regulatory scrutiny, compute limits, and the fast pace of rival releases remain key variables that could alter debut timing and initial performance thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Объем
$106,362Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s recent pattern of anonymously testing frontier large language models on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena continues to shape sentiment around the next release. GPT-5.5, launched April 23, 2026, rapidly climbed past 1500 Elo while competing directly with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, highlighting gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. Traders monitor leaks, developer previews, and leaderboard sightings for signals of an imminent successor—potentially GPT-5.6 or an o-series update—expected to follow the same blind-evaluation route. Regulatory scrutiny, compute limits, and the fast pace of rival releases remain key variables that could alter debut timing and initial performance thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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