Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance across Arena Text leaderboards, where it leads as the most consistent performer in categories like expert tasks, math, and coding following its April 16 release. This marks a clear edge over Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro (16.5%), which trails closely but excels in creative writing, amid anticipation for potential Gemini 3.2 or 3.5 announcements at Google I/O on May 19-20. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (8.0%) remains competitive yet lags in overall rankings, while xAI's Grok 4.20 (2.5%) shines in niche areas like hard prompts. With six weeks to resolution, new benchmark updates or surprise releases could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце июня?
Какая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце июня?
Anthropic 72.4%
Google 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.6%
$5,767,053 Объем
$5,767,053 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Anthropic
72%
17%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.4%
Google 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.6%
$5,767,053 Объем
$5,767,053 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$823,340 Объем
72%
$503,234 Объем
17%
OpenAI
$330,115 Объем
8%
xAI
$1,053,484 Объем
3%
Meta
$127,160 Объем
1%
DeepSeek
$493,047 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$153,508 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$293,648 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$360,397 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$350,769 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$462,676 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$143,766 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$149,069 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$371,283 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$151,745 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance across Arena Text leaderboards, where it leads as the most consistent performer in categories like expert tasks, math, and coding following its April 16 release. This marks a clear edge over Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro (16.5%), which trails closely but excels in creative writing, amid anticipation for potential Gemini 3.2 or 3.5 announcements at Google I/O on May 19-20. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (8.0%) remains competitive yet lags in overall rankings, while xAI's Grok 4.20 (2.5%) shines in niche areas like hard prompts. With six weeks to resolution, new benchmark updates or surprise releases could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Объем
$5,767,053Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance across Arena Text leaderboards, where it leads as the most consistent performer in categories like expert tasks, math, and coding following its April 16 release. This marks a clear edge over Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro (16.5%), which trails closely but excels in creative writing, amid anticipation for potential Gemini 3.2 or 3.5 announcements at Google I/O on May 19-20. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (8.0%) remains competitive yet lags in overall rankings, while xAI's Grok 4.20 (2.5%) shines in niche areas like hard prompts. With six weeks to resolution, new benchmark updates or surprise releases could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$5,767,053Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent dominance across Arena Text leaderboards, where it leads as the most consistent performer in categories like expert tasks, math, and coding following its April 16 release. This marks a clear edge over Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro (16.5%), which trails closely but excels in creative writing, amid anticipation for potential Gemini 3.2 or 3.5 announcements at Google I/O on May 19-20. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (8.0%) remains competitive yet lags in overall rankings, while xAI's Grok 4.20 (2.5%) shines in niche areas like hard prompts. With six weeks to resolution, new benchmark updates or surprise releases could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model landscape.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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