**In New York’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary, scheduled for June 23, 2026, incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat faces a tight contest against challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, with minor candidates also on the ballot.** Recent debates have highlighted sharp differences on immigration enforcement, ICE policy, foreign affairs, and campaign finance, energizing distinct voter bases. Avila Chevalier benefits from NYC-DSA endorsement and Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s support, driving intensive grassroots canvassing modeled on recent successful local campaigns, while Espaillat draws on long-standing incumbency, institutional ties, and established fundraising networks in Upper Manhattan and the Bronx portions of the district. Polls from early to mid-June show narrow leads or small gaps (within single digits) between the top two, with limited public surveying overall. This closeness, combined with typical low primary turnout and the potential impact of organized get-out-the-vote efforts, keeps margins uncertain and sustains balanced trader probabilities across small, moderate, and larger victory ranges as well as “Other.” Late developments such as final debate performances, endorsement visibility, or turnout surprises in key precincts could shift the outcome before polls close.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЭспайят 5–10% 18%
Эспайят <5% 17%
Авила Шевалье 5–10% 15%
Авила Шевалье <5% 14.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 июн. 2026 г.
Авила Шевалье 10%+
13%
Авила Шевалье 5–10%
15%
Авила Шевалье <5%
15%
Эспайят <5%
17%
Эспайят 5–10%
18%
Эспайят 10%+
14%
Другое
3%
Эспайят 5–10% 18%
Эспайят <5% 17%
Авила Шевалье 5–10% 15%
Авила Шевалье <5% 14.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 июн. 2026 г.
Авила Шевалье 10%+
$619 Объем
13%
Авила Шевалье 5–10%
$507 Объем
15%
Авила Шевалье <5%
$3,007 Объем
15%
Эспайят <5%
$519 Объем
17%
Эспайят 5–10%
$645 Объем
18%
Эспайят 10%+
$2,815 Объем
14%
Другое
$591 Объем
3%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**In New York’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary, scheduled for June 23, 2026, incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat faces a tight contest against challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, with minor candidates also on the ballot.** Recent debates have highlighted sharp differences on immigration enforcement, ICE policy, foreign affairs, and campaign finance, energizing distinct voter bases. Avila Chevalier benefits from NYC-DSA endorsement and Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s support, driving intensive grassroots canvassing modeled on recent successful local campaigns, while Espaillat draws on long-standing incumbency, institutional ties, and established fundraising networks in Upper Manhattan and the Bronx portions of the district.
Polls from early to mid-June show narrow leads or small gaps (within single digits) between the top two, with limited public surveying overall. This closeness, combined with typical low primary turnout and the potential impact of organized get-out-the-vote efforts, keeps margins uncertain and sustains balanced trader probabilities across small, moderate, and larger victory ranges as well as “Other.” Late developments such as final debate performances, endorsement visibility, or turnout surprises in key precincts could shift the outcome before polls close.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ET
Объем
$8,703Дата окончания
23 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**In New York’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary, scheduled for June 23, 2026, incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat faces a tight contest against challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, with minor candidates also on the ballot.** Recent debates have highlighted sharp differences on immigration enforcement, ICE policy, foreign affairs, and campaign finance, energizing distinct voter bases. Avila Chevalier benefits from NYC-DSA endorsement and Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s support, driving intensive grassroots canvassing modeled on recent successful local campaigns, while Espaillat draws on long-standing incumbency, institutional ties, and established fundraising networks in Upper Manhattan and the Bronx portions of the district.
Polls from early to mid-June show narrow leads or small gaps (within single digits) between the top two, with limited public surveying overall. This closeness, combined with typical low primary turnout and the potential impact of organized get-out-the-vote efforts, keeps margins uncertain and sustains balanced trader probabilities across small, moderate, and larger victory ranges as well as “Other.” Late developments such as final debate performances, endorsement visibility, or turnout surprises in key precincts could shift the outcome before polls close.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$8,703Дата окончания
23 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**In New York’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary, scheduled for June 23, 2026, incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat faces a tight contest against challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, with minor candidates also on the ballot.** Recent debates have highlighted sharp differences on immigration enforcement, ICE policy, foreign affairs, and campaign finance, energizing distinct voter bases. Avila Chevalier benefits from NYC-DSA endorsement and Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s support, driving intensive grassroots canvassing modeled on recent successful local campaigns, while Espaillat draws on long-standing incumbency, institutional ties, and established fundraising networks in Upper Manhattan and the Bronx portions of the district. Polls from early to mid-June show narrow leads or small gaps (within single digits) between the top two, with limited public surveying overall. This closeness, combined with typical low primary turnout and the potential impact of organized get-out-the-vote efforts, keeps margins uncertain and sustains balanced trader probabilities across small, moderate, and larger victory ranges as well as “Other.” Late developments such as final debate performances, endorsement visibility, or turnout surprises in key precincts could shift the outcome before polls close.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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