Heavy early-month accumulation has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 500 mm or more of June precipitation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory measurements reached 491.8 mm through June 16 amid frequent thunderstorms and monsoon trough activity typical of the wet season. With roughly two weeks remaining and climatological norms supporting an additional 100–200 mm, totals are projected to exceed the threshold under most forecast scenarios relative to the long-term June average of approximately 450–490 mm. Trader consensus reflects this observed surplus. Only a prolonged dry spell or substantial downward data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though current patterns and guidance make such reversals unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPrecipitation in Hong Kong in June?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in June?
500mm+ 100.0%
<350mm <1%
350-375mm <1%
375-400mm <1%
$27,507 Объем
$27,507 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
<350mm
<1%
350-375mm
<1%
375-400mm
<1%
400-425mm
<1%
425-450mm
<1%
450-475mm
<1%
475-500mm
<1%
500mm+
100%
500mm+ 100.0%
<350mm <1%
350-375mm <1%
375-400mm <1%
$27,507 Объем
$27,507 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
<350mm
$4,705 Объем
<1%
350-375mm
$4,353 Объем
<1%
375-400mm
$3,140 Объем
<1%
400-425mm
$1,585 Объем
<1%
425-450mm
$1,569 Объем
<1%
450-475mm
$1,739 Объем
<1%
475-500mm
$4,818 Объем
<1%
500mm+
$5,597 Объем
100%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Heavy early-month accumulation has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 500 mm or more of June precipitation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory measurements reached 491.8 mm through June 16 amid frequent thunderstorms and monsoon trough activity typical of the wet season. With roughly two weeks remaining and climatological norms supporting an additional 100–200 mm, totals are projected to exceed the threshold under most forecast scenarios relative to the long-term June average of approximately 450–490 mm. Trader consensus reflects this observed surplus. Only a prolonged dry spell or substantial downward data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though current patterns and guidance make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Объем
$27,507Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Heavy early-month accumulation has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 500 mm or more of June precipitation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory measurements reached 491.8 mm through June 16 amid frequent thunderstorms and monsoon trough activity typical of the wet season. With roughly two weeks remaining and climatological norms supporting an additional 100–200 mm, totals are projected to exceed the threshold under most forecast scenarios relative to the long-term June average of approximately 450–490 mm. Trader consensus reflects this observed surplus. Only a prolonged dry spell or substantial downward data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though current patterns and guidance make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$27,507Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Heavy early-month accumulation has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 500 mm or more of June precipitation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory measurements reached 491.8 mm through June 16 amid frequent thunderstorms and monsoon trough activity typical of the wet season. With roughly two weeks remaining and climatological norms supporting an additional 100–200 mm, totals are projected to exceed the threshold under most forecast scenarios relative to the long-term June average of approximately 450–490 mm. Trader consensus reflects this observed surplus. Only a prolonged dry spell or substantial downward data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though current patterns and guidance make such reversals unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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