Ongoing small-bank resolutions, including five failures year-to-date totaling roughly $694 million in assets, have kept the market-implied odds of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end at 60.5%. Concentrated commercial real estate and C&I loan losses have repeatedly impaired capital at vulnerable institutions, while surveys highlight persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Stable large-bank capital buffers and orderly FDIC resolutions limit systemic spillovers, yet the recent pace of closures and unchanged deposit-insurance thresholds sustain trader expectations of further events before December 31. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of economic releases and any Federal Reserve communications on financial stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
63% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
63% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Ongoing small-bank resolutions, including five failures year-to-date totaling roughly $694 million in assets, have kept the market-implied odds of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end at 60.5%. Concentrated commercial real estate and C&I loan losses have repeatedly impaired capital at vulnerable institutions, while surveys highlight persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Stable large-bank capital buffers and orderly FDIC resolutions limit systemic spillovers, yet the recent pace of closures and unchanged deposit-insurance thresholds sustain trader expectations of further events before December 31. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of economic releases and any Federal Reserve communications on financial stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Объем
$87Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Ongoing small-bank resolutions, including five failures year-to-date totaling roughly $694 million in assets, have kept the market-implied odds of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end at 60.5%. Concentrated commercial real estate and C&I loan losses have repeatedly impaired capital at vulnerable institutions, while surveys highlight persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Stable large-bank capital buffers and orderly FDIC resolutions limit systemic spillovers, yet the recent pace of closures and unchanged deposit-insurance thresholds sustain trader expectations of further events before December 31. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of economic releases and any Federal Reserve communications on financial stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Объем
$87Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing small-bank resolutions, including five failures year-to-date totaling roughly $694 million in assets, have kept the market-implied odds of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end at 60.5%. Concentrated commercial real estate and C&I loan losses have repeatedly impaired capital at vulnerable institutions, while surveys highlight persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Stable large-bank capital buffers and orderly FDIC resolutions limit systemic spillovers, yet the recent pace of closures and unchanged deposit-insurance thresholds sustain trader expectations of further events before December 31. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of economic releases and any Federal Reserve communications on financial stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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