Robust capital buffers and the June 2026 Federal Reserve stress test results underpin the 93% market-implied odds against a major U.S. bank bailout before 2027. All 32 large institutions maintained common equity Tier 1 ratios above regulatory minimums despite projected $708 billion losses in a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in commercial real estate and home prices—the smallest aggregate capital drop in years. Q2 2026 FDIC data showed elevated returns on assets, record net income, and liquidity levels with uninsured deposits well below 2023 peaks, reflecting post-crisis reforms and steady FOMC policy. Trader consensus views these conditions as durable through year-end 2026. Still, an abrupt macroeconomic shock, concentrated commercial real estate losses, or unexpected contagion from regional institutions could test resolution frameworks and shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКрупная финансовая помощь американским банкам до 2027 года?
Крупная финансовая помощь американским банкам до 2027 года?
Да
7% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
7% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Robust capital buffers and the June 2026 Federal Reserve stress test results underpin the 93% market-implied odds against a major U.S. bank bailout before 2027. All 32 large institutions maintained common equity Tier 1 ratios above regulatory minimums despite projected $708 billion losses in a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in commercial real estate and home prices—the smallest aggregate capital drop in years. Q2 2026 FDIC data showed elevated returns on assets, record net income, and liquidity levels with uninsured deposits well below 2023 peaks, reflecting post-crisis reforms and steady FOMC policy. Trader consensus views these conditions as durable through year-end 2026. Still, an abrupt macroeconomic shock, concentrated commercial real estate losses, or unexpected contagion from regional institutions could test resolution frameworks and shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Объем
$4,183Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Robust capital buffers and the June 2026 Federal Reserve stress test results underpin the 93% market-implied odds against a major U.S. bank bailout before 2027. All 32 large institutions maintained common equity Tier 1 ratios above regulatory minimums despite projected $708 billion losses in a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in commercial real estate and home prices—the smallest aggregate capital drop in years. Q2 2026 FDIC data showed elevated returns on assets, record net income, and liquidity levels with uninsured deposits well below 2023 peaks, reflecting post-crisis reforms and steady FOMC policy. Trader consensus views these conditions as durable through year-end 2026. Still, an abrupt macroeconomic shock, concentrated commercial real estate losses, or unexpected contagion from regional institutions could test resolution frameworks and shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Объем
$4,183Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Robust capital buffers and the June 2026 Federal Reserve stress test results underpin the 93% market-implied odds against a major U.S. bank bailout before 2027. All 32 large institutions maintained common equity Tier 1 ratios above regulatory minimums despite projected $708 billion losses in a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in commercial real estate and home prices—the smallest aggregate capital drop in years. Q2 2026 FDIC data showed elevated returns on assets, record net income, and liquidity levels with uninsured deposits well below 2023 peaks, reflecting post-crisis reforms and steady FOMC policy. Trader consensus views these conditions as durable through year-end 2026. Still, an abrupt macroeconomic shock, concentrated commercial real estate losses, or unexpected contagion from regional institutions could test resolution frameworks and shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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