Ongoing naval tensions in the Persian Gulf, stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran that began in late February 2026, have driven a sharp contraction in Strait of Hormuz traffic to roughly 5 percent of pre-war daily averages of 100–130 vessels. Recent data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List show single-digit transits on most days through mid-May, with occasional clusters of 9–10 ships tied to U.S. escort operations under Project Freedom and limited Iranian-permitted passages. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, mine-clearance efforts projected to last months, and Iran’s new transit-permit regime have kept commercial tanker and bulk-carrier flows suppressed, supporting elevated global oil and refined-product prices. With May 31 rapidly approaching, traders are watching for any sustained uptick in escorted or coordinated movements that could push daily volumes toward thresholds like 20 vessels.