Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, continue to drive trader sentiment amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026. The U.S. Navy has already conducted multiple transits, including guided-missile destroyers in early May under the “Project Freedom” initiative, while the UK has deployed a Royal Navy destroyer and France is repositioning its carrier strike group toward the region. These moves reflect efforts to counter Iran’s effective blockade, which has trapped approximately 1,500 vessels and throttled daily traffic by over 90 percent. Market-implied odds favor additional naval involvement from European and Asian partners before the May 31 deadline, as prolonged disruptions sustain elevated tanker rates, widen crude spreads, and heighten volatility in energy benchmarks such as Brent and WTI futures. Key upcoming catalysts include further multilateral coordination and potential regulatory responses that could ease or intensify supply risks through the narrow chokepoint.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
$994,644 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
United Kingdom
4%
France
4%
Germany
2%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
<1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
<1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
4%
Bahrain
4%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
5%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$994,644 Объем
United Kingdom
$159,985 Объем
4%
France
$95,166 Объем
4%
Germany
$162,521 Объем
2%
Italy
$74,081 Объем
1%
Netherlands
$50,298 Объем
1%
Japan
$112,031 Объем
<1%
Canada
$19,730 Объем
<1%
India
$7,405 Объем
2%
Greece
$18,380 Объем
<1%
Pakistan
$11,940 Объем
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,254 Объем
2%
UAE
$2,764 Объем
4%
Bahrain
$18,244 Объем
4%
Qatar
$5,626 Объем
<1%
Kuwait
$1,101 Объем
5%
Oman
$4,498 Объем
1%
South Korea
$82,934 Объем
<1%
Australia
$72,042 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, continue to drive trader sentiment amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026. The U.S. Navy has already conducted multiple transits, including guided-missile destroyers in early May under the “Project Freedom” initiative, while the UK has deployed a Royal Navy destroyer and France is repositioning its carrier strike group toward the region. These moves reflect efforts to counter Iran’s effective blockade, which has trapped approximately 1,500 vessels and throttled daily traffic by over 90 percent. Market-implied odds favor additional naval involvement from European and Asian partners before the May 31 deadline, as prolonged disruptions sustain elevated tanker rates, widen crude spreads, and heighten volatility in energy benchmarks such as Brent and WTI futures. Key upcoming catalysts include further multilateral coordination and potential regulatory responses that could ease or intensify supply risks through the narrow chokepoint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Открытие рынка: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$994,644Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, continue to drive trader sentiment amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026. The U.S. Navy has already conducted multiple transits, including guided-missile destroyers in early May under the “Project Freedom” initiative, while the UK has deployed a Royal Navy destroyer and France is repositioning its carrier strike group toward the region. These moves reflect efforts to counter Iran’s effective blockade, which has trapped approximately 1,500 vessels and throttled daily traffic by over 90 percent. Market-implied odds favor additional naval involvement from European and Asian partners before the May 31 deadline, as prolonged disruptions sustain elevated tanker rates, widen crude spreads, and heighten volatility in energy benchmarks such as Brent and WTI futures. Key upcoming catalysts include further multilateral coordination and potential regulatory responses that could ease or intensify supply risks through the narrow chokepoint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Объем
$994,644Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, continue to drive trader sentiment amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026. The U.S. Navy has already conducted multiple transits, including guided-missile destroyers in early May under the “Project Freedom” initiative, while the UK has deployed a Royal Navy destroyer and France is repositioning its carrier strike group toward the region. These moves reflect efforts to counter Iran’s effective blockade, which has trapped approximately 1,500 vessels and throttled daily traffic by over 90 percent. Market-implied odds favor additional naval involvement from European and Asian partners before the May 31 deadline, as prolonged disruptions sustain elevated tanker rates, widen crude spreads, and heighten volatility in energy benchmarks such as Brent and WTI futures. Key upcoming catalysts include further multilateral coordination and potential regulatory responses that could ease or intensify supply risks through the narrow chokepoint.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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