Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus on the 20-39 ships outcome at a 64% implied probability for the week of May 11. Persistent Iranian restrictions, active U.S. blockade measures, and recent attacks on tankers have kept daily transits in the low teens, well below pre-February 2026 averages of over 100 vessels, with many ships operating dark to avoid targeting. This environment has stranded hundreds of tankers in the Persian Gulf and elevated insurance premiums, reinforcing the low-traffic pricing despite occasional escorted crossings. With resolution approaching on May 17, any last-minute diplomatic signals or de-escalation could still shift the distribution toward the 40-59 bucket, though current data flows support the prevailing market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 64%
40-59 29%
60-79 4.7%
<20 5%
$78,369 Объем
$78,369 Объем
17 мая 2026 г.
<20
5%
20-39
64%
40-59
29%
60-79
5%
80+
1%
20-39 64%
40-59 29%
60-79 4.7%
<20 5%
$78,369 Объем
$78,369 Объем
17 мая 2026 г.
<20
$27,273 Объем
5%
20-39
$13,276 Объем
64%
40-59
$14,402 Объем
29%
60-79
$12,000 Объем
5%
80+
$11,418 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus on the 20-39 ships outcome at a 64% implied probability for the week of May 11. Persistent Iranian restrictions, active U.S. blockade measures, and recent attacks on tankers have kept daily transits in the low teens, well below pre-February 2026 averages of over 100 vessels, with many ships operating dark to avoid targeting. This environment has stranded hundreds of tankers in the Persian Gulf and elevated insurance premiums, reinforcing the low-traffic pricing despite occasional escorted crossings. With resolution approaching on May 17, any last-minute diplomatic signals or de-escalation could still shift the distribution toward the 40-59 bucket, though current data flows support the prevailing market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Объем
$78,369Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus on the 20-39 ships outcome at a 64% implied probability for the week of May 11. Persistent Iranian restrictions, active U.S. blockade measures, and recent attacks on tankers have kept daily transits in the low teens, well below pre-February 2026 averages of over 100 vessels, with many ships operating dark to avoid targeting. This environment has stranded hundreds of tankers in the Persian Gulf and elevated insurance premiums, reinforcing the low-traffic pricing despite occasional escorted crossings. With resolution approaching on May 17, any last-minute diplomatic signals or de-escalation could still shift the distribution toward the 40-59 bucket, though current data flows support the prevailing market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$78,369Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus on the 20-39 ships outcome at a 64% implied probability for the week of May 11. Persistent Iranian restrictions, active U.S. blockade measures, and recent attacks on tankers have kept daily transits in the low teens, well below pre-February 2026 averages of over 100 vessels, with many ships operating dark to avoid targeting. This environment has stranded hundreds of tankers in the Persian Gulf and elevated insurance premiums, reinforcing the low-traffic pricing despite occasional escorted crossings. With resolution approaching on May 17, any last-minute diplomatic signals or de-escalation could still shift the distribution toward the 40-59 bucket, though current data flows support the prevailing market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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