Trader consensus implies a 99.1% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests—suppressed through massacres by mid-January—the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during US-Israeli strikes launching the 2026 Iran war, and smooth succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. Recent developments, including Mojtaba's meetings with military chiefs and escalated executions to curb dissent, show IRGC loyalty and internal control intact despite degraded defenses noted in US testimony on May 15. Absent mass defections, coups, or uncontainable uprisings in the short 16-day window, stability prevails, though war escalation or economic collapse could theoretically shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПадет ли иранский режим к 31 мая?
Падет ли иранский режим к 31 мая?
Да
$19,782,449 Объем
$19,782,449 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Да
$19,782,449 Объем
$19,782,449 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus implies a 99.1% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests—suppressed through massacres by mid-January—the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during US-Israeli strikes launching the 2026 Iran war, and smooth succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. Recent developments, including Mojtaba's meetings with military chiefs and escalated executions to curb dissent, show IRGC loyalty and internal control intact despite degraded defenses noted in US testimony on May 15. Absent mass defections, coups, or uncontainable uprisings in the short 16-day window, stability prevails, though war escalation or economic collapse could theoretically shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Объем
$19,782,449Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus implies a 99.1% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests—suppressed through massacres by mid-January—the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during US-Israeli strikes launching the 2026 Iran war, and smooth succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. Recent developments, including Mojtaba's meetings with military chiefs and escalated executions to curb dissent, show IRGC loyalty and internal control intact despite degraded defenses noted in US testimony on May 15. Absent mass defections, coups, or uncontainable uprisings in the short 16-day window, stability prevails, though war escalation or economic collapse could theoretically shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$19,782,449Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 99.1% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests—suppressed through massacres by mid-January—the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during US-Israeli strikes launching the 2026 Iran war, and smooth succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. Recent developments, including Mojtaba's meetings with military chiefs and escalated executions to curb dissent, show IRGC loyalty and internal control intact despite degraded defenses noted in US testimony on May 15. Absent mass defections, coups, or uncontainable uprisings in the short 16-day window, stability prevails, though war escalation or economic collapse could theoretically shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы