Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for Kurds declaring independence from Iran, driven by Tehran's sustained control over its Kurdish provinces amid the absence of any formal secession announcement from groups like PJAK or KDPI. Early 2026 tensions, including reports of CIA arming efforts and cross-border preparations by Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq, failed to materialize into action, with IRGC operations dismantling US- and Israel-backed networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces by late April. No verifiable escalations, uprisings, or diplomatic shifts have emerged in the past 30 days, reinforcing Iran's territorial integrity. Scenarios like regime collapse from broader conflict or sudden international intervention could shift odds, though structural barriers—fragmented opposition, military superiority, and lack of recognition—make this improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКурды провозглашают независимость от Ирана?
Курды провозглашают независимость от Ирана?
Да
$138,396 Объем
$138,396 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$138,396 Объем
$138,396 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for Kurds declaring independence from Iran, driven by Tehran's sustained control over its Kurdish provinces amid the absence of any formal secession announcement from groups like PJAK or KDPI. Early 2026 tensions, including reports of CIA arming efforts and cross-border preparations by Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq, failed to materialize into action, with IRGC operations dismantling US- and Israel-backed networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces by late April. No verifiable escalations, uprisings, or diplomatic shifts have emerged in the past 30 days, reinforcing Iran's territorial integrity. Scenarios like regime collapse from broader conflict or sudden international intervention could shift odds, though structural barriers—fragmented opposition, military superiority, and lack of recognition—make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Объем
$138,396Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for Kurds declaring independence from Iran, driven by Tehran's sustained control over its Kurdish provinces amid the absence of any formal secession announcement from groups like PJAK or KDPI. Early 2026 tensions, including reports of CIA arming efforts and cross-border preparations by Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq, failed to materialize into action, with IRGC operations dismantling US- and Israel-backed networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces by late April. No verifiable escalations, uprisings, or diplomatic shifts have emerged in the past 30 days, reinforcing Iran's territorial integrity. Scenarios like regime collapse from broader conflict or sudden international intervention could shift odds, though structural barriers—fragmented opposition, military superiority, and lack of recognition—make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$138,662Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for Kurds declaring independence from Iran, driven by Tehran's sustained control over its Kurdish provinces amid the absence of any formal secession announcement from groups like PJAK or KDPI. Early 2026 tensions, including reports of CIA arming efforts and cross-border preparations by Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq, failed to materialize into action, with IRGC operations dismantling US- and Israel-backed networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces by late April. No verifiable escalations, uprisings, or diplomatic shifts have emerged in the past 30 days, reinforcing Iran's territorial integrity. Scenarios like regime collapse from broader conflict or sudden international intervention could shift odds, though structural barriers—fragmented opposition, military superiority, and lack of recognition—make this improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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