The fragile ceasefire following the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran continues to shape trader expectations that no foreign officials or military personnel will physically enter Iranian territory by June 30. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes during Operation Epic Fury targeted missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but avoided sustained ground operations amid a subsequent U.S.-brokered truce that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild capabilities with Russian and Chinese assistance, alongside persistent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, underscore the risks of escalation that could prompt renewed strikes or limited incursions. Diplomatic channels, including reported U.S. pressure on nuclear terms, remain the primary alternative to direct entry, though any shift in the fragile truce or high-level visits could alter the low implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$388,916 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Любой член Палаты представителей США
5%
Любой сенатор США
3%
Джаред Кушнер
2%
Марко Рубио
2%
Пит Хегсет
2%
Джей Ди Ванс
2%
Биньямин Нетаньяху
1%
Дональд Трамп
1%
$388,916 Объем
Любой член Палаты представителей США
$86,947 Объем
5%
Любой сенатор США
$29,991 Объем
3%
Джаред Кушнер
$15,604 Объем
2%
Марко Рубио
$21,470 Объем
2%
Пит Хегсет
$93,012 Объем
2%
Джей Ди Ванс
$30,933 Объем
2%
Биньямин Нетаньяху
$42,286 Объем
1%
Дональд Трамп
$68,675 Объем
1%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile ceasefire following the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran continues to shape trader expectations that no foreign officials or military personnel will physically enter Iranian territory by June 30. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes during Operation Epic Fury targeted missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but avoided sustained ground operations amid a subsequent U.S.-brokered truce that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild capabilities with Russian and Chinese assistance, alongside persistent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, underscore the risks of escalation that could prompt renewed strikes or limited incursions. Diplomatic channels, including reported U.S. pressure on nuclear terms, remain the primary alternative to direct entry, though any shift in the fragile truce or high-level visits could alter the low implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Объем
$388,916Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile ceasefire following the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran continues to shape trader expectations that no foreign officials or military personnel will physically enter Iranian territory by June 30. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes during Operation Epic Fury targeted missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but avoided sustained ground operations amid a subsequent U.S.-brokered truce that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild capabilities with Russian and Chinese assistance, alongside persistent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, underscore the risks of escalation that could prompt renewed strikes or limited incursions. Diplomatic channels, including reported U.S. pressure on nuclear terms, remain the primary alternative to direct entry, though any shift in the fragile truce or high-level visits could alter the low implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$388,916Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile ceasefire following the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran continues to shape trader expectations that no foreign officials or military personnel will physically enter Iranian territory by June 30. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes during Operation Epic Fury targeted missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but avoided sustained ground operations amid a subsequent U.S.-brokered truce that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild capabilities with Russian and Chinese assistance, alongside persistent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, underscore the risks of escalation that could prompt renewed strikes or limited incursions. Diplomatic channels, including reported U.S. pressure on nuclear terms, remain the primary alternative to direct entry, though any shift in the fragile truce or high-level visits could alter the low implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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